All real estate markets go through four stages of maturity. The four stages vary in length of duration. Some stages last 20 years while other can last over 50 years. Make sure you pick the correct stage to invest in by understanding what cycle your local market is in.
1. Growing Market: New building leads to growing areas that have newer construction, higher employment, lower crime, higher income levels, more active involvement in the community and a growing need by people to live, work and play in the area. These areas tend to have higher relative property values, lower cap rates and command higher rents.
2. Declining Market: As markets grow and land becomes less prevalent, new construction slows down. Properties become older with landscaping more mature. These markets were the former growing markets, and are typically found on the edges of the growing market. These areas tend to have Class A- to Class C+ buildings with lower rental rates. The demographics are weaker. People living and working in these areas are typically value people (affordable quality) who want the nicer lifestyle but can’t afford the nicer areas.
3. Stagnant Market: Markets that are stagnant have no growth in population, jobs or energy. Little to no construction is occurring. This market has one of the lowest demographic profiles of the four stages. Low income and poverty is prevalent, crime is high, property vandalism is pervasive, and drug related activity is high. These markets have the lowest rents, lowest property values, highest delinquency problems, and highest tenant turnover. You must be a hands-on property owner in this market.
4. Redeveloping Market: After going through tough, stagnant times, these markets are rebounding into growing areas. Developers are venturing into these markets under urban renewal programs, many sponsored by local government. Properties in these areas typically are closer to central business districts where there is a concentration of employment. Property values are on the rise, rents are rising, and the overall market is getting stronger. Understanding the local market and the life cycle stage it is in will help you decide if your property is located in a good location for your investment strategy. Don’t ignore this important step in the investing process. If you do, you’ll find many unexpected surprises on your door step down the road, costing you thousands.
Those are the four stages of maturity. Remember they do greatly vary in length of duration.
Craig Haskell is author of, The Inside Game to Real Estate Value Investing, and founder of the ValueHoundAcademy.com, a community of opportunistic and value minded real estate investors who are serious about learning new approaches to capitalizing on today’s “Once in a lifetime” buying opportunity.
As the creator of the Value Hound Blueprint, a value investing system for real estate investors, Craig is the nation’s leading expert on the subject of real estate value investing.
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