October 23, 2022 (Sun) Hanshin Racecourse Turf 3000m
The final race of the Stallion Classic, the Kikka Sho. It boasts a long history of 82 times so far, and eight triple crown horses were born here, including the 2020 Contrail. Among recent winners, Contrail won the Japan Cup the following year, while Fiermann, who was the 7th favorite in 2018, went on to win the same Yodo long-distance race in the Emperor’s Sho (spring). The 2019 world premiere also won the Spring Emperor Award. And last year’s title holder was the Emperor’s Award (spring) and the Takarazuka Kinen G1 consecutive victory, both of which are also active in later G1. Let’s take a look at past trends to see what kind of results are waiting for us this year.
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No. 1 favourites are stable, but there are few settlements between popular horses
Over the past 10 years, the No. 1 favorite has achieved reasonably stable results with a win rate of 50.0% and a multiple win rate of 70.0%. In the past 10 years, there has never been a 1-2 finish between runners in the top 3 favorites, and even when Contrail won the race with a win of 1.1x two years ago, the 2nd and 3rd favorites in the low 10x range fell out of the range, over 20x. 4th and 5th favourites finished 2nd and 3rd and are charging 8,740 yen for triples. It was around 2017 that the trifecta went wild, but last year when it was the 4th, 3rd, and 6th most popular, it was close to 80,000 yen.